Saturday, 27 June 2015

Let's set the clock to 0...

The last weeks I made almost sixty trades and ended with a profit of over 150 Euro. You see these numbers below.

In the beginning I traded with higher stakes and slighty different strategies. Today I finished the tennis guide, version 3.0. It will be the base for Wimbledon and the upcoming tournaments.

To make the trades comparable, I have to set the clock to 0. If I would continue with the KPI on the left side, I would compare apples with pears. That would give a wrong picture to analyze my trades.

Like I wrote in the past, the strike rate will probably be worse in the future. On the other hand the ratio between the average profit and the average loss will be better. Right now I have one of 0.42 (22.34 / 52.37). This means that I have a lot pressure to generate much more winners than losers.

It's difficult to forecast the future ratio, but it should be near 1.00 or even above. If you are capable to reach a ratio of 1.00 and a strike rate over 50%, you make profit. The nice thing with trading tennis is the fact, that you can scale up your stakes without any problems (when you trade consistent profitable).

Yesterday and today I managed to make profits thanks to Sam Querrey. Yesterday he was one set and one break down against Dolgopolov and today the same happened against Istomin. Today the trade was not looking good, when the Uzbek served at 7:6 and 5:2 (later again at 7:6 and 5:4) for the match. Fortunately he struggled with his nerves and couldn't finish the encounter until the tiebreak. Like Bencic (against Radwanska) he won today his maiden title on the main tour. The profit of Querrey and the small loss with Bencic (I expected a similar scenario like with Istomin) showed that the ratio changed. While I won with Querrey 45 Euro, I lost with Bencic only 19 Euro. Of course it needs a lot more matches to have a big enough sample, but I have the assumption (and this is equal to my target) that the ratio will be in the future over 1.00, on the other hand the strike has to be at least 50%.

The biggest loss should not exceed 100 Euro. If it happens, it's a lack of discipline. This is also a reason to set the clock to 0. In the future these big losses are not allowed anymore! If this happens again, I have to stop with trading... without patience and discipline, you will never be a successful trader.

So, I look forward to an interesting tournament at Wimbledon. Hopefully the next week (the second week I will miss, because of holidays) will confirm my progress.


  1. To start with and share what i think about is , the foremost point of utmost importance is the entry point, its easier said done but until that percentage goes up it dosen't matter what else happens. Leave trading even if you are betting and your entry point is good you can make through breakeven point.
    If your entry point is good no matter what happens barring some games in tennis which are ONE-WAY TRAFFIC you will always getample opportunities to make and square off trade

    1. Yes, the entry point is the most important decision for sure. If you take the wrong moment, you can lose a lot and win almost nothing.

      I was thinking about entering during a game, this I do in very rare occasions. Of course you make a good profit (and the risk is low), when you entering at 4:5 0:30, but here is a kind of a gamble. Two wrong points and the set can be over. I prefer to go in at 4:5 0:0 despite the odd is a bit higher. In the end is all personal preference, I am sure that differenet ways go to Rome.

      Like I posted some days ago, the theory says that the strategy only makes 10% of the success. Perhaps is a bit higher (because you have to adapt your trading style to the markets... some years ago you could back the server), but in the end the psychology, the selection (knowledge of the players) and the money management make you a good trader.

      One-Way-Traffic can you also bring profits. It depends on your strategy. With my one is very difficult to win without breaks. Like I wrorte, a lot of ways go to Rome... and I prefer in the future a good ratio between average profit and loss. The strike rate can be very bad, when you have a ratio of 100 between average profit and loss. To be comfortable this ratio should be in my case over 50%... some people probably can live with less, because they are more patient and can wait for the "big bird". I like to have some small ones, but there is not the only right way.

  2. Hi, just a note if you have a profit/loss ratio of 1 you need 60% to make some profit because of betfair commision. And if you're using big stakes and make many trades this commision really adds up.
    I hope to continue trading even if you have a loss caused by the lack of discipline. That is part of trading but it's important to manage it psychologically and should have funds to continue. Looking forward to see your progress with the 3.0 strategy.

    1. Of course you are right with the commission. In my ratio of 1 the commission is already included. I am always talking about average netprofits. Sorry not to mention that.

      Like I wrote in the blog comment of of Cassini, for me trading is only a nice hobby. There is no target anymore to be one day a fulltime trader. I think this helps to keep the expectations and pressure low. Nevertheless the discipline has to rise, this means in my case, no soccer bets anymore. With tennis I stick to my money management in 99% of the cases. In the future it should be 100%... but with soccer I lost more than once 30-50% of my whole bank.

      I am excited about the results with strategy 3.0. I hope the confidence will grow and that I don't need a version 4.0. The beginning of success is to stay with a strategy for long term. In the blog of Sultan you could recognize that. After he found his way, the results became better and better. Before he changed every week/month and went in circles... somehow I feel that the breakthrough is just around the corner. Let's see if my feeling is right. :-)