Monday, 4 May 2015

Nice development

I am happy about the development of my bank. Since I started this blog it grew around 10%. To be honest the amounts are small, but it shows that I am on the right way. Especially at soccer the system works quiet nice. Of course I have to test it with bigger stakes to be sure if I found a "money machine".

At tennis I chosed the wrong matches. The strategy is more flexibe than at soccer. It means you can win more, but you also have more volatility in the results. Beside the confidence is still missing a bit. For this reason I will keep the stakes small. The discipline is good so far. The biggest loss was around two Euros, which is equal to 1% of the bank.

On the other side the preparation of the day could be better. I should mark some interesting games before they take place and enter when the scenario is fine.

Belinda Bencic for example is completely out of shape. How in the hell she could be 1.30 favourite against Ajla Tomljanovic? After a break she was trading around 1.20, but I missed the opportunity to lay her. Beside I think that is not in every case necessary to have TV live coverage for a trade. Of course is better, but when an odd is value, you don't need pictures. Sometimes it's even better, because the momentum can change so quick at tennis. With pictures you are more afraid to go for the player which doesn't play the best on the moment.

In general I am happy with the first days of this blog. I recognized that I already have some readers. Thank you for your interest. Beside the profit goes in the right direction. Tomorrow I will work, so I don't trade much. Perhaps there will be some opportunities at the last matches in Madrid. I will keep you updated.

Saturday, 2 May 2015

A busy day

It was a busy day on the ladders. I woke up at 10.30 am to be ready for the first tennis games of the day. Despite good swings in the match between Giraldo and Schwartzman I didn't make a big profit. The Colombian was trading at 1.05 (score: 6:0, 2:0), when the rot for him began. In the end he lost 6:0, 2:6, 2:6! I just made seven cents depite a dream scenario for every trader... 

Unfortunately I made the mistake to open too much positions at a 0:4 score for a bad value. A 0:6 is not a big accident with one trade, but five positions are hurtful. The same (without recovery) happened in the match between Svitolina and Schmiedlova (how the hell she could win yesterday against Baczinsky?!), where the girl from Ukraine won the first set 6:0 as well! After these errors I adjusted the strategy. In the first set I will only open one trade at balanced games (start odd > 1.40 for each player). The odd at the end of the set can vary from 1.17 to 1.30. That's too unsecure for a multiple trade. 

At the Federer game the profit could be bigger. Unfortunately he lost the tiebreak after he came back from a 2:5. Nevertheless I recognized that this strategy works quiet well. I could make even more money with Gasquet, but late in the evening I was not in the trade mode anymore.

At soccer I made one trade. It showed that the strategy works. I had a free bet (for ten minutes) which was not successful, but in the long run the edge will bring profits.

After a rainy day in Munich, they will have to busy program tomorrow. Beside there will be the half finals at Istanbul and Estoril. The girls play the finals at Marrash and Prague. On the other hand the first rounds at Madrid (Mutua Open) take place. In the evening I will go out, but before I try to trade the one and other tennis and soccer match.

Friday, 1 May 2015

First day

Today there was a lot of action at the tennis markets. At the moment the men play in Istanbul, Estoril and Munich. The women tournaments take place in Marrakech and Prague. Unfortunately I was quiet busy, and I had only some hours to trade.

Like mentioned in my first post, I trade at the moment with very small amounts. This approach helps to become confident. Thanks to the high liquidity at tennis markets, it's no problem to play the strategies with 100 times bigger amounts. So you could imagine the values above without a decimal.

It's still a process to improve and simplify the strategies. At soccer I have a very easy approach and it works so far quiet well. At tennis it's still too complicated. In the beginning I had like 20 different entries. In my opinion the system has to be easy, because you have to react quick on the markets. The main point is a good risk/reward-ratio. A lot of traders make the mistake to win a few ticks and lose a lot.

As a first step I try to create a green book in a market with low volatility. If I am successful I go for the bigger swings. "Safety first" is my slogan. I made my learnings from the past. Yes, it would be nicer to make big profits, but a steady development of the bank is the more succesful way in the long term.

Right now I am trading with a bank of only 200 Euros. The max loss per trade should not excess five Euros. At the moment I will not deposit any money to my account. In the long term I will do, because I like to play with a bank of 20'000 Euros to have the leverage of stakes. For the moment 100 times smaller amounts are the perfect way to simulate the future. Today my profit would be 142 Euro, not bad for just two trades and only two hours on the ladders...