Sunday, 6 September 2015

Up and down

After I reached two days ago a new all time high, I am back to 0. Sometimes is hard, but as a trader you have to live with this variance.

Like I wrote yesterday, I have to improve my patience. In general I recognized that is better to trade the underdog than the favourite. The market often expects a turn around when the player with the bigger name is trailing. So the value is often poor. Yesterday Serena Williams started at 1.05 (against Mattek-Sands). Despite the number 1 was struggling, the market kept the trust. You could back her for 1.50 at the end of the second set for a while. Of course that can be an option (definitely better than back her at the start for 1.05), but the better way would lay her since the start. The worst case is loosing five ticks, they will not kill you.

Here I see a lot of potential. Instead of waiting for an expected comeback, it's often better to lay the big name at the start or at an early stage of the match. Many times the favourite doesn't start well. Even Djokovic (against Seppi) had some problems in the beginning. Unfortunately I traded for comebacks of Radwanska (against Keys) and Ferrer (against Chardy). Probably it was not a good valuation of the situation. The mentioned players have not the best season and Ferrer was even injured for a while. On the other hand their opponents are quite strong at the moment. I make still too often the typical mistake to go with the bigger name. I have to be more selective!

I recognized that another good blog (BIG PAIRS) is gone. In this point I have to agree with Cassini. It's astonishing how many blogs start with a lot of enthusiasm (and often good results), and suddenly they are not updated anymore. Probably it was another loudmouth. I was a bit suprised, how his profit was skyrocking. Often this is a sign that something is smelly. I am definitely not the most successful trader (yet), but at least I am honest. I try to keep the blog interesting, but is getting more difficult. My trading approach is quite stable now, it's just a kind of bad game selection I mentioned above.

Today I will trade the whole evening and night. I hope I can fight back from a small downfall. If not, it's not the end of the world. I just made an overview of my financial portfolio and recognized that my (virtual) Betfair account is only 2% of it. It's the part with the highest volatility, so I can't invest too much money at sportsmarkets. I am sure that this global view helps to strenghten my mind. In the end trading is mainly a psychological game. The long term winners have discipline and are mentally very strong. Caan wrote once again a good article about it: 4 trading fears. I agree with everything. Especially the part with successful people is interesting. Yes, it can be one of my problems. In my job career I didn't fail often. So it's still hard for me to lose trades. I have to learn and accept that only the long term is important!