Friday, 12 June 2015

A bad start is not helpful...

I don't like to blame players, but Coco Vandeweghe was the reason that I had a difficult day. She was the defending champion at Hertogenbosch (and is a decent grass player in general), but today was not her day. On the other side the local Kiki Bertens played something like the match of her life. Before this tournament she only won one game on a grass court... the only funny for me were the names of the players: Coco and Kiki... sound more like a movie for adults. :-)

After a bad start (Coco lost 4:6, 1:6), I was not in the mood to take enough risk. It's everywhere the same, without taking risk you win nothing. Overall I had to recognize that my approach is a bit to risk averse. I like to enter when there is not much downside potential anymore (for example when one player is leading 4:1). Nothing against that, but you don't find many opportunities when you are afraid to lose 15 ticks. So I decided to rise the stop loss from ten to 15 ticks.

The other critical topic is the exit. Often one point is missing for the break. It's quite frustrating, when you have a decent profit (thanks one or more chances for a break) which turns in a loss when the breakballs are not converted. After all I decided to keep it simple. Sometimes they are converted and sometimes not... overall a good game of the receiver helps to strenghten the odd. So I will always wait for the break, despite missed break chances can bring a (small) loss instead of a profit of 20-30 ticks.

With the recovery of the day I was happy. Cilic, Nadal and Goffin all lost one set. It's always a good scenario when the favourite goes behind. Normally the market keeps the confidence, and you can make some profit without taking much risk. Unfortunately I trusted Kohlschreiber too much and went for a free bet. Monfils doesn't like grass, and the German played in front of the home crowd. Well it shows once again, that betting on a player (only trust the gut feeling) is normally not the best way to make money. You always have to trade the market and not the player! It's all about value and risk-/reward-ratio. Kohli around 1.80 (at 1:1-score after two sets) was no real value...


  1. Hi Martin,
    Your link is now on my blog. Sorry for the delay, I forgot all about it!

    Paul (TradeShark)

    1. Hello Paul

      No problem, thank you so much! I wish you good luck and all the best.

      Regards, Martin