Tuesday, 23 June 2015

Lay 960 busted!!

What a match beween Gilles Simon and Marcel Granollers. With the own serve the Spanish player was 6:4, 5:4 and 40:0 ahead. At this moment Simon was trading at 960, and somebody traded a lay for 50 Euro. This person took a risk of 48'000 Euro to win just 50 bucks. I never would do this, tennis is just too inpredictable. On the other hand I am waiting for the moments to find these kind of back opportunities... Well I would not do it with my own money, but with green books. Unfortunately I didn't see a good moment to enter this match. Nevertheless I hope the days will come, where I can go for these big wins. You only need one or two of them (even with greening) to have a superb year. This is one of  the principle of the strategies. With the (big) profits you should make the difference. The small reds and greens should offset.

Simon vs. Granollers (23.06.2015)
My trading day was an up and down. I started with a mistake which cost me 48 Euro. Afterwards I had bad luck that my free bet on Ferrer didn't work. The same problem i had later with Safarova. Instead of a decent three digits profit (when Lucie would take one of her felt 100 break chances), it ends with 10 Euro. The worst loss (almost 100 Euro) resulted from the match between Madison Keys and Belinda Bencic. Nothing to blame, it was bad variance. I never saw Bencic so strong at WTA level. She served amazing and the length of the ground strokes was just fantastic. In the end she won 6:2, 6:2 against a player, which she lost a month ago at French Open 0:6, 3:6! The biggest profit (something over 100 Euro) I made with the first set comeback of Dolgopolov.

Overall it was a good day. I was prepared and knew what I like to do. Mostly my ideas worked. It would be a decent profit with a better variance. Ferrer and Lucie both lost as favourites in two sets, that is not often the case. In the end of the day I was exhausted and missed the one or other opportunity.

Beside I could make a clarification about the entry levels. You have to decide if you enter during a game or just when its finished. I decided to make two rules. There are big players (like Djokovic, Federer or Williams), where it can make sense to back them at a crucial score (for example 4:5, 0:30). They have the mentality and skills to fight back. If you don't take these opportunities, they will often not come again... On the other hand in more balanced matchups these entries normally doesn't make sense.


  1. Hello Tennis Trader,
    Such a pleasure to read all your posts on your blog.Truly awesome and keep it up. I am a serious tennis trader for past 1 year on betfair and before that i was betting on Cricket on Bet365 which now i have shifted to Betfair.I came to your blog by mootennis.com since i am avid follower of Moo's insights.
    Its been almost a year learning the tennis trading but i have still not mastered a complete edge but then nothing can be near perfect.All i have done till now is to learn how not to loose at first and when you have mastered how not to loose it automatically turns into some small trading profits.
    Just a kind suggestion to work with a bank of at least 500 euros for having some working profits.Anything below less will need much more time and you know how the variance are and how tight bookmakers have become.

    betfairtennistrader.blogspot.com i found this blog very useful.This guy is the super champ of all tennis traders and the best thing about him is he clearly says this is more of an art then a science and to master an art you have to learn it by itself.

    Looking forward to more of match discussions and strategies with you and keep blogging.I am not that tech-savy nor i have expertise to handle a blog else i would have also have my blog cum diary.

    PS: I see a no value at the start in todays Bencic vs Bouchard game.Only after end of first set or if someone goes down double break in the first set i will think of laying the leader at that time.Gonna be a tight first set else a very docile one.


    1. Thanks for your comment, Vivek. Yes, the first step is trading save and become more experienced. When you see the strategies work over a longer time, you gain confidence. I saw this development at Sultan. As he trusted his strategies the next problem was the greed... but I think when you are at this point, you made it.

      I am still not there, but since I started this blog I made 52 trades and I have - despite some mistakes - a slim profit. Well, I know that the sample is not enough big to make a final judgement. I guess that the the direction is alright. Slowly, but surely I come nearer to my target.

  2. Bencic was clear (at least to me :) ) Keys didn´t play on grass for over a year while Bencic played Hertogenbosch, Birmingham and Eastbourne. Also only 10 places different in the WTA-ratings.

    1. That Bencic can win this match was no question, but that she dominates in that manner you couldn't expect. Today we will have an interesting matchup between Belinda and Konta. Both are on fire, are 1:1 H2H and love to play on grass. I am excited to watch this match. At the moment I can't tell if the match is a good one to trade. I expect a balanced match, so it could be a try. Let's see...