Wednesday, 1 July 2015

The right timing is essential...

If you count the profit of the match between Keys and Vögele (which started yesterday) to today's profit&loss statement I had a green day. If not, I had a red one.

Today I was always a step behind the market. I hesitated too long and missed some opportunities (especially the comeback of Baghdatis against Millman). The day passed by, and I became impatient. When you lose your patience, the mistakes are just a question of time. Unfortunately I traded a poor value with a too early lay against Mattek-Sands. I don't tell, that you couldn't lay her, but my timing was poor, and I executed a wrong strategy.

I was thinking again about my favourite topic, the key performance indicators of trading. :-) I am not so sure if is possible to reach a 1.00-ratio of average profit in comparison to average loss with my strategy. Perhaps when one day a really huge (four digits) profit will come, but when you calculate the median it's probably impossible. I am more the "in and out trader" than the one which hold his position until the end. Like somebody mentioned in the comments, you have to consider that you also lose a lot of trades if you let them run until the end (for example today with Sara Errani). Well, in the end this ratio doesn't matter. The only thing which is important, is the net profit (in comparison to the risk --> ROI or yield).

I made a small adjustment at the exit of a trade (redding strategy). In combination with my greening, the "Sultan strategy" (take out half of the stake, when is 0:30 or breakball against your player) it doesn't make sense. For example:

You lay 1.25 with 200 Euro (risk 50 Euro)
You back 1.10 with 100 Euro (-10 Euro risk)

Perhaps this approach worked some years ago, but now it's too late to halve your stake at this moment. After 0:30 (and a break and set down) the big price movement already happened. Even with taking out half of the stake, you lose 80% of the initial stake. On the other hand, you lose 50% of the stake for a possible comeback...

I give away a bit of the profit with breakpoints for my player. Most traders are waiting for a converted break. I prefer to play more save. Obviously this difference has an influence on the average profit against average loss-ratio. If you wait for a rebreak, your strike rate will be lower, on the other hand your average profit will be higher... I think is a personal preference, how you manage the profits and losses. More crucial are the right timing at the entry!

Like I wrote some days ago, serveral ways go to Rome. Let's see if my strategy with a higher strike rate and a worse average profit/loss-ratio can work.


  1. Mattek-Sands match was funy to trade I made 6 trades on this match with profit 0,56 pound Lol

    1. I lost over 80 Euro, but I have to blame myself. If I would stick 100% to my strategies, my result would be just a small loss of probably 10-20 Euro.

      I think is psychological. If you have a decent start in the day, you are more patient. Beside is quite difficult to prepare and handle the day with so much matches.

      I am okay with these kind of mistakes as long as they are in the money management range. Every error helps to improve. I feel that I am very near to a strategy guide (now it's 3.01), which fits my personality. I think that's the first step to be a succesful trader. Copy&paste of an approach normally doesn't work. Well, lets see, what day 4 brings. For me it's already half time. At Saturday I will go to holidays. Would be nice to finish Wimbledon with two good trading days. Let's see...

  2. Cassini lives in California so probably not the best person to be advising on trading sports on an exchange as the laws in the USA prohibit them from doing so.

    1. I am just interested about his opinion, but I don't take it as an advice. He has a lot of experience and knowledge. How you could read, I don't agree with his opinion about tennis markets. If it would be like he tells, no new trader could enter the market successful. It's quite probable that you start as part timer and when it works you go full time... I am 100% sure that you can make a side income with tennis trading. The results of the last weeks are encouraging.

  3. Maybe trader you was little bit overconfident after last winings

    1. No, I don't think so. In general it's the opposite. Like Cassini mentioned I still have to convince myself that tennis trading can bring a lucrative side income.

      It was really a mistake. I am not the kind of trader, which says a lost trade is a mistake and a good one is because my great trading skills. :-) I didn't take enough attention to the start price (1.30), so I executed a strategy which is not allowed with a higher start price than 1.25. It sounds like a small difference, but inplay these five ticks are a huge difference.

      Overconfidence is a common problem, that's true. In my case is the opposite. I miss too much opportunities, because I hesitate too long. At least I rised my skills in closing a bad trade. It's better to lose 10-20 Euro and have the opportunity to be green overall with one medium sized profit than gamble for a comeback and lose 30 Euro or more. I think this is a big progress I made lately. If I can solve the problem with hesitating too long, I have the base to be successful in the future.

  4. Who exactly is Cassini ? They first appeared on the scene circa 2008 advising that they pay the "premium charge" and over the next few years they did not really offer that much in terms of "trading strategy " if you read the blogs ....

    They have promoted one premium service which was the XXdraws and the site for the xxdraws has been closed and if you look at the ROI for the 3 seasons that the XXdraws operated then we see > 2012-2013 -15% ROI ... 2013-2014 -5% 2014-2015 slightly down ( an improvement )

    It is very easy to create a persona on social media as you can hide your identity behind a computer screen.

    Cassini has a very strong knowledge of what is known as SOCK PUPPET blogging but no evidence to suggest they have any experience of trading sports to any level.

    As they say " you can fool some of the people all of the time " but it is not possible to fool all of the people all of the time...

    1. Well, discuss this topic with him. I don't agree with you. If somedody blogs for years, it's not only hot air. Perhaps he is not the specialist at tennis, but you can't be one in every field...