Sunday, 19 July 2015

New setup is done!

Sooner than expected I returned to the ladders. The main reason is the time. In two weeks I will start my new job, so my schedule will be pretty busy. Like Big Pairs, indeed a very nice blog (Big Pairs), I will be forced to share my time between work, trading and other hobbies. Right now I have not much other things to do. Of course I could sit at the lake, but without any effort you will never be a successful trader. Nevertheless I don't have the plan to work as a full time trader like Big Pairs wants to do. For me trading will remain a hobby. Hopefully a lucrative one, but as a single source of income I don't see it anymore. There are too much disadvantages, which I discussed some weeks ago.

I made some major adjustements at my trading approach. The biggest changes are the following ones:

  • Smaller Stakes: Once again i set the clock to 0 (I really hope that's the last time)! Yesterday I started with a bank of 1'000 Euro. The common trading rule says that you should not risk more than 1-2% of your bank per trade. In my case that would be 10-20 Euro. The past showed that is too much. A bad run of trades give you a bad feeling, and you lose the trust in the strategies. To reach a sample size which is big enough to judge a strategy (something like 1'000 trades), I decided to trade with only 1-2 Euro risk. If the system works, I can scale up without any problems by factor 100. So it's quite easy to see, what could be possible (just erase the comma... cents could be Euros :-)).
  • Shorter timeframe: In the past I stayed often too long in a trade. Sometimes I was 30-50 ticks in profit, but in the end I lost. I decided to trade shorter periods, but with more positions.
  • Lower Risk-/reward-ratio: I was too focused on a positive risk-/reward-ratio. There are different trading styles. Some traders risk 10 ticks to make 20. Other people risk 100 ticks with the target of winning one. In the end it has to suit your preferences. I prefer a higher strike rate, so my single position can't go for the jackpot.  

For the moment I will trade with these very low stakes. If is possible to double my bank with this strategy (from 1'000 to 2'000 Euros) I will rise the stakes by factor 10. Ten time bigger stakes would be an appropiate money management for my current bank (risk 10-20 Euros with a bank of 1'000 to 2'000 Euros). At the moment testing is more important than the P+L.

Yesterday I started with the above mentioned parameters. With two successful trades I made a profit of 1.14 Euros. It doesn't sound very impressive, but with factor 100 we would cooking... Good things start small. Let's see what's possible. Right now I feel again a lot more confident.

12 comments:

  1. Good to hear that positive attitude!

    I see part-time trading as an advantage, over the years I´ve done both (never by option) and I can say that the added pressure of full-time trading is not a good thing, especially when you are establishing yourself. It´s a purely pshycological difference but not one to despise.
    That said, I think you are in a theoretically good position to trade, you don´t need the money and you have a good theoretical (at least!) knowledge: you understand all the important concepts: risk/reward ratios, etc.

    About your plan, i think you are making good adjustements; the only part i may disagree is the scaling up by a factor of 10, it may easily get you frustrated if you start losing money when you change the staking plan. I would advise you a more balanced scaling up plan like the one I told the other day. But, as always there are no perfect plans, each to their own.

    Another thing that may help: entering and exiting the market may not be a black or white situation, in that trade that you stated that you were 30 ticks up and still lost the trade, the choices are vaster than entering and exiting the market. You can partially sell 30 ou 50% of your position (or whatever you fell is adequate) whether you are winning or losing, in the middle of your time-frame. As an example, when you were 30 ticks up if you sold 50 per cent of your position, when the 30 ticks went against you, you would still be in profit. This may increase the trading complexity, but it was just to share another approach.

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    1. Part-time trading is definitely an advantage. It's not only about different sources of income, it's also about social life and diversity. My prefered setup would be 50% self employed as a trader and 50% normal work at a company. I tried this before, unfortunately you don't get interesting and well paid 50% jobs. My future vision is being self employed, but not only as a sportstrader. I like to have a portfolio with real estate, stocks and beside I like to do some trading. Right now I don't have the financial freedom to do this. I am in the best age to earn good money as an employee, so I decided for that way.

      Yes, I could scale up more smoothly. It was just an idea to keep the stakes low until the moment I feel confident. In the past I changed to much my approaches. Right now I am far away from an adequate money management. To risk only 0.1 to 0.2% of the bank is too risk-averse, and you have higher opportunity costs (blocked money, invested time). The scaling up is just the step to go back to a normal money management.

      About entering and existing markets. I decided for myself to have different stages. During the first phase I like to make a profit which is the base for the second stage. In this timeframe I only like to be involved some seconds. If I can create a green book, I start trading like you mentioned. If not, I am out of the trade. I calculated risk/reward-ratios which could work.

      Yes, you are right. My theoretical knowledge is quite okay now. So far I couldn't transfer my theoretical know how to the markets. Small stakes shoud help to succeed with this step.

      P.S. It's nice to have your feedback. Better than the guy which is always complaing about Cassini. Some people better should wipe from their own door, when you know what I mean Mr. Agzikara. Sorry to see that you are still a loser, but I can't help you anymore.

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    2. Your theoretical knowledge is way above average in my opinion, now I think you need hours in the markets; active hours, to learn what suits you from a practical perspective, trading-wise. A paradox, is that in the end it could be something far from what you thought would work from a theoretical perspective.

      Ps. I didn´t understood the bit about Mr. Agzikara, but thank you for the compliment.

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    3. Thanks for the compliment! Yes, it's about rising my experience at the ladders. I am on the right way, that I feel. I know the theoretical stuff, the psychology and players/markets. Now I need to connect all this knowledge to a whole picture.

      Agzikara... yes, it was an insider. I know that he is reading here. They guy I mentioned, knows what I mean. :-)

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  2. You should also remember, if you try to hit bigger winning trades, your success rate is likely to be lower. Whilst taking smaller profits, often, should make your success rate higher and reduce variance.

    It seems to me, that you are stuck in-between knowing what kind of trader you want to be, or what to do with the trades. You should know before you enter the trade, when you are looking to exit or what your exit point will be if the trade goes into the green, if your having to think 'should I exit, or should I let it run?' then you are basically gambling imo. When this happen's you have not factored in statistics/momentum.

    "If in doubt, get out!"

    That would be my advice and a line you should learn or write down on your desk/stick to your monitor.

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    1. This is sound advice; although sometimes it is not possible to define the exit point in a 100% rigorous way, it is always good to have a plan and to have a reason behind your entry and exit points.

      If he doesn´t mind, I´ll add "if in doubt, don´t get in" to The Alchemist advice, :)

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    2. The last article of Caan Berry is fantastic: http://caanberry.com/betfair-trading-strategies-slow-down-let-yourself-win/

      Basically he tells us that you have to find your own way. Some people prefer a lot of small profits and other can live with bigger variance and high profits/small losses.

      Yes, I was stucked. "Unfortunately" I was successful for a while with an approach which didn't suit my preferences. After the holidays came a bad run, which opened my eyes. The system brought longer losing strikes that I expected.

      I have a plan before the match starts. I only adjust it, when my game reading tells me something different. It's about probabilities and not being right all the time. I mean if you lay 1.01, every trader "doubts" in a way. There are doubts and doubts, but I think I know what you mean.

      In my opinion there are three different disciplines at trading tennis: short term (scalping), mitdterm (swings, reading the momentum) and long term (value spotting, see overreactions). I was focussed on the midterm stage. It's like starting in the 2nd or 3th gear with the car. You can do that, but is not the easiest way. Like I quoted once from Dr. Alexander Elder: "Amateurs look for challenges; professionals look for easy trades. Losers get high from the action; the pros look for the best odds".

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    3. Haha, I don't mind Unknown, next time on the ladders I think I'll add that one also! ;)

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  3. "Better than the guy which is always complaining about Cassini" - Who could possibly complain about me?

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    1. The guy which scammed me. I don't know if he paid you for the draw service. He always mentions, how poor your performance is, and that you don't have a clue about trading. I don't publish his crap anymore. Just a poor guy which is not in control of his life and wants to be a trader, but he has no brain to reach this target. So he is just jealous about successful people like you.

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  4. If you like trading the football goals market then have a look at http://www.goonersguide.com/forum-frame.htm 95% strike rate

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    1. Thanks, but I don't trade football. My focus is 100% on tennis.

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