Monday, 20 July 2015

Live pictures are a must!

That's why you should never back 1.01 or trade without live TV pictures. Anna-Lena Friedsam was 6:1, 4:0 ahead against Klara Koukalova. There was absolutely no chance for a comeback for the Czech player. She was completely outplayed.

Unfortunately Anna-Lena felt down (to be honest I didn't see it). She was screaming like hell. I was sure that this is something serious. Betfair has the rule that the bet will stand, when at least one set is completed. I was surprised how much money was still available to lay Friedsam for odds far under 2.00. In the beginning even for 1.10 and below... So I layed her for quite big money (at least in comparison for what I am trading right now). In the end I made almost 50 Euro profit with not much risk. It was obvious that she hurted herself really serious and I could hedge my profit without any problems. Friedsam had to retire (I hope is not too serious) and all the money on her was lost. I could even go for a bigger profit (without a hedge), but in the end trading is not gambling.

What is the learning of this story? Never back 1.01 (an injury is always possible) and never trade without live pictures. On the other hand you can make money with these kind of things. If I would be quicker (I lost the concentration on this match at 6:1, 4:0), I could fill my boots even more.

This profit gives me some room for a possible downfall. I will not count them to the profit&loss that I show on the right side. It's a different approach, whichs works perhaps one or two times in a year.


  1. I had profit 30 pound 5 minutes break for toilet when I comeback i was 150 down because of this
    all profits from 1 week gone

    1. Sorry to hear that, but I don't understand, how you could lose this kind of trade. Don't get me wrong, I am also a master of stupid mistakes :-). Today I was just more lucky.

      Never leave a trade unattended. You could trade out at 1.01 before going to toilet. Beside there is rarely value at 1.01 (at least not in a WTA match with a 1.60 start favourite), so I suppose to hedge in the area between 1.01 and 1.10.

      Well, I also made my learnings today. Don't trust too much a favourite (like Svitolina or Pavlyuchenkova), which is only at the paper one. The value is often on the dog.

      It's an on going learning process. I see the positive side of errors. You can improve your strategies, your behaviour and the market knowledge. Only the ones with the most endurance will succeed.

  2. You absolutely right I should close trading before toilet

    1. Well, only the wise people don't make mistakes. The intelligent learn from errors, only the stupid ones make the same failure more than once.

      I see every mistake as a chance for the future! So head up and look forward.

  3. Do you remember the time Caroline Wozniacki was told by her father in Polish to retire when 5-0 up and set up because she was injured and her father told her to let the other girl go through to next round ...

    chap on an exchange who was Polish heard what the father said and started laying 1.01 for all he had in his account

    1. Interesting, thank you! No I didn't know this story, but it shows that in tennis can happen a lot. The Woz scenario is not a very common one, because she loses money and points with this behaviour. It was like a gift for the opponent, perhaps a good friend.

      It helps to have live pictures (in my opinion a must), a good comment (like Vladka which understands like 5-6 languages and translate it) and understanding of some languages.

      In formula 1 for example you can make money if you have a good comment, which informs you in advance (because he/she sees it on his screen).

      Such kind of scenarios (like injuries, accidents) need quick information and handling. Sometimes you have even an advantage against the courtsider, because you have a comment.

      Today was quite obvious that the girl was seriously injured. If you could lay her for under 1.10 it would be a bargain. Above the risk could be too high (for bigger money). You never know if she continues playing with a lead of 6:1, 4:0. Unfortunately there are always people which are quicker... so it's not a good idea only to focus on this "strategy". From time to time, you can make extra money if you stay focused during a match. Things like this happen perhaps one time in a year. I mean if you hit it in the right moment (and the liquidity is there), you can make six digit profits without much risk (risk 1'000 to make 100'000 Euro). Today I would risk 1'000 Euro because the chance that she continues with playing after this screaming was under 50%...

  4. I'm polish and i know this history but it was not order from her father it was only suggestion

    I watch some the match when player A most time lose the match ,call medical time 2 times his odds 10-25 in decimal-in some point of game player B call medical time 2 minutes later end of game player B retired

  5. Even better one was a match where the scoring was the wrong way round so it looked like Player A was winning when player B was winning and the people courtside were laying player B at much bigger prices then if really winning and people were happily taking the bigger price to discover that their player lost.