Scale up

The headline says it, I am thinking about scaling up. Not yet, but I am planning a smooth increase of  the stakes while I am still testing the system. It's better to rise the liabilities step by step and not from one day to the other. Of course the sample size is still to small to be sure about the edge, but the confidence is growing. It's not that you can judge a strategy after 1000 trades and with 999 trades not. It's also a smooth development, and I never traded so consistent before.

When I am still on the track after 100 trades, I will double my stakes. It's not a big jump, it will still be micro trading with a risk less than five Euros per trade. If the success story continues, I will be after 1000 trades at the level I like to reach (in a first stage). I expect that I need around one year to be there. It will be factor 100 in comparison to todays liabilities. I kept an eye on the markets last days, and I am quite sure that the liquidity will not be a big issue at the most tournaments for 100 times bigger stakes. We are talking about 200 Euros and not about 1'000 Euros or even more.

In general I am very happy about the development. It's getting easier to spot value (How in the hell Kudla could be 5.0 after he was a break down against Sock?! I saw him even as a pre game favourite...), and I am really comfortable with the strategy now. The biggest issue is still riding the "green waves". Despite I was confident about Kudla, I just made 1.07 Euro profit. It should be at least two Euros (even with hedging after the first set). Well, it sounds not a like a big thing, but with higher stakes this is a huge difference, which you can't afford in the long term.

I don't like to complain. Two weeks ago I would agree to this development without any hesitation. Of course it's still micro trading, but the procedure is (almost) the same with higher stakes. The only thing which I am worried about is the variance. It can be that I am only on a good run. The hit rate is really high (almost 90%), and I doubt that I can keep this number. 50% would be just random like at the casino. I think a number between 75% and 80% should be possible with this approach.

Unfortunately I can't do any backtesting, because I trade manually. When I consider a game situation as value I enter the market, if not I stay out. It can be quite boring, the most of the time I am just waiting for the right moment. Well it seems not a bad approach, I heard from some professionals that trading can be dull. Is a bit like in the army. Waiting, waiting, waiting and then running like hell and have stress. Fortunately I have a lot more fun at the tennis ladders than I had in my time as a soldier! :-)

The calm before the storm

I am a bit disappointed, the TV coverage of the biggest tournament this week at Hamburg (500 series) is quite poor. They only show the matches on the centre court. Beside I prefer to trade the WTA tour, and this week we only have low quality tournaments. It's not that you need Novak Djokovic or Roger Federer to trade, but when you don't know the players, it doesnt' make sense to get involved in the action. I would say that I know most of the players ranked inside the top 100 and a few lower ranked up to 200. Beside Jelena Jankovic (WTA 25), which plays a very small tournament in China (together with a lot of unknown Asian players), Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (WTA 42) is at Baku the highest ranked player on the courts. At least it has the advantage to know new players.

The ATP tournaments have higher quality, but like mentioned, the TV coverage could be better. Beside we have to wait for the more balanced matches, which are normally better to trade, until the round of 16. At Gstaad we saw in the first round like expected (excluded Haase vs. Granollers) very one sided matches. Atlanta is difficult to trade, because on hardcourt (at least with bad returners at ATP) the matches are often dominated by serve. At Hamburg high quality matches like Fognini vs. Chardy or Monaco vs. Gulbis were not shown on TV. On the other hand you could watch all the matches at Atlanta, for example Jared Donaldsson vs. Somdev Devvarman.

Well, I don't like to complain. Soon the USA/Canada tour heats up with tournaments at Washington, Montreal (girls at Toronto), Cincinnati and later the US Open will take place. It's perfect for me, because I can trade after work.

For the above mentioned reasons I didn't trade much this week. Okay, it's just Tuesday :-). I made five trades, and I am more or less breakeven. I updated the strategy guide, now we already have the version 4.0. It's funny to compare it with version 1.0, which was more or less a copy&paste of Sultan. Now I developped my own style of trading, and it seems that I am on the right path. The fine tuning is not finished yet (just today I made a small adjustment again), but the big picture is done.

The next days should bring more balanced matches at Gstaad and Atlanta. Probably also the one or other match at WTA is suited to trade. If not, I will not be (much) in action like a lot of high ranked players... We can say, it's the calm before the storm (in USA and Canada).

Strong first week with the new approach

Since eight days I trade with a new approach. Like already described, I shortened the timeframe, which I am involved in a trade. Obviously it's easier to make 1-2 ticks per trade as 20. As a consequence the hit rate rised.

I made exactly 25 trades (not positions!) so far and only lost three of them. One time I had ten winners in a row and the current streak is even eleven. I am really happy about these numbers. They are well above what I expected. I managed a yield of 27.7% and earned almost seven units. Of course I know that the sample size to judge a strategy and my trading skills are too low. With this pace (25 trades a week) I need at least half a year, better a whole one, to prove the edge.

Overall the following things were positive:

• Discipline: I start to accept losses. To close a red position is part of the game. Beside I stopped to chase losses. The money management with very low liabilities is accepted as well.
• Hit rate: I couldn't expect 88% right picks. It speaks for a good selection process and decent entry- and exit-levels. Long term I try to have a value between 75-80%.
• Risk/Reward-Ratio: The biggest profit was higher than the biggest loss. In average the profits are lower than the losses. Nevertheless the ratio (0.6 after commission) is better than expected. In the long term I would be happy with 0.5.

To improve I have the following points:

• Hesitation: On one side the hit rate is fantastic. On the other one the amount of trades could be higher. I missed some opportunites (of course I also avoid bad trades), so the overall profit could be higher.  
• Compounding: After I created green books I often destroyed (a part of the) profits. I guess that I gambled too much and didn't pick the value. It also could be bad variance. If you like to ride a longer swing, it needs more to succeed. Overall I had no clear plan to manage the greens. 
• Speed: Sometimes I was too slow to green up. In generall I see here a problem. While the games are played (not in the breaks) the courtsiders often offer only bad value. The liquidity - which you need to hedge the trade - is not available. To be honest, this point can be critical to scale up the strategy... I will keep an eye on this issue, perhaps was also a problem of the tournaments size. Last week no big event was played.

In general I am very happy about the first week. It's still a long way to go, but the first step is done. The following week will be the last one as hobby full time trader. At 3th August I will start my new job. The quantity of tournaments (Hamburg, Gstaad, Atlanta, Baku, Florianopolis and Nanchang) will help to continue with the intense testing of the strategies.

On the left side you can see my trades. There are small differences to the KPI. First I didn't count the (big) profit from the injury bet. I wrote about it. Second I don't consider scratched trades (-0.10 to +0.10).

Managing profit expectations

One of the common mistakes of novice traders and bettors are too high expectations of their profit. I can remember that a guy offered me a ROI of 35% (a month)! Even without compounding you would make - on a yearly base - a profit of four times your bank. Let's say you have 50'000 Euro on your account, this means you make an income of 200'000 Euro a year (without considering the commissions). It sounds delightful, but it's not very realistic.

One of the most famous and successful bettors (he earned millions with betting), Patrick Veitch, made an ROI of 16%. Yesterday we talked about tipster services. Most of them offer unrealistic profits, which they never can deliver. A very good trader/tipster makes 3-4 units a month (let's assume that one unit is at most 2% of your account... so it's 6-8% per month). You also have to consider the yield, the ratio between the stakes and the profit. A long term yield of 10% is not easy to reach. Let's say you risk 500 Euro, which is equal to 1% of your bank, per trade (in smaller tournaments here already start the liquidity problems), you earn in average 50 Euro. If you make 100 trades a month (a realistic number as a tennis trader) your profit will be 5'000 Euro. So you would make a ROI of exactly 10% a month. To be honest, I think this is still quite a high target and a very impressive performance.

It shows that you need a realistic target settting. If your expectations are too high, you will not succeed. You will always search for a system, which doesn't exist.

At Sunday I will take a look on the performance of the first week with the new approach. Managing expections is definitely also a topic I have to consider. Or how Conficius told: "It does not matter how slowly you go as long as you do not stop."

Fixed game at challenger tour!

Just read in a forum that the Kazaks (Golubev and Nedovyesov) fixed their match (fixed match) at a challenger tournament in Netherlands. Golubev won the first set with 6:2. So far, so good. While he hold his serve in the second set without any problems, the odd drifted away. He started the 2nd set as a 1.26 favourite and was trading at almost 3.00 at the score of 6:2, 4:4 (see the chart on the left side)! Like planned, Nedovyesov won the tiebreak of the 2nd set and later the match...

It seems that the world number 95 (Nedovyesov) and 156 (Golubev) don't earn enough as tennis professionals.

This is one of the reasons why I don't trade challenger tournaments. Nevertheless I am a bit shocked, how players around top 100 ranking can do that. That's a behaviour without any sportsmanship. Unfortunately nothing will happen. For me these two Kazaks are just stealers and cheaters. They definitely found a place on my "wall of shame" beside Ulas Agzikara (the scammer). Fortunately I was no victim this time. All the backers of Golubev were stolen today, what a disgrace!

Here you can even find a longer summary of the story: How to fix a tennis match (twice!)

Well life goes on (for me and the ones which lost this bet)... as a conclussion: Never risk too much with any trade.

Standard deviation

Tuesdays are the busiest days at tennis ladders. The tournaments heat up after a slow start on Monday, where normally only a few matches take place. It's really difficult to keep the overview. Especially at my stage of the trading career. I am still looking for an edge, so it's important to keep an eye on as much as possible matches.

I am thankful to get some extreme scenarios this week so far. Yesterday we had the injury of Anna-Lena Friedsam (she hurted the ankle), today we saw some very one sided first sets (0:6). In this case the favourite (Pironkova) only won six points in the first set! It's good to have matches with standard deviation. So you can see if your system works under windy conditions. In sunshine every strategy brings profit.

I learned today that you have to expect the worst. Your strategy has to be enough robust to pull through extreme scenarios. You can't take the average outcome as a base. I had to make a small adjustment. Probably my hitting rate will be a bit lower in the future (6-0 W-L looks nice indeed!), but on the other side my single profits will be higher. After this change I was able to make my biggest profit so far (2.20 Euro at the match between Giorgi and Cibulkova). To be honest, I was a bit lucky. I couldn't trade out at 1.40 (suddenly the liquidity was gone), so I did it at 1.45. This difference almost doubled the profit.

I am still mainly working on the first set trading (without much compounding). Trading is really complex, so you have to divide the different stages of a tennis match in small (trading) pieces. Right now my focus is on scalping. Caan Berry wrote once again a nice article: Betfair trading strategies
It's about your own behaviour. I found out that for me quick in and out trades suit better than mid- or long term swings. If I can handle the short term trading, I can start to think about compounding. Lay low odds are powerful, every trader knows that. With green books this is the way to go, but I will take step after step.

Live pictures are a must!

That's why you should never back 1.01 or trade without live TV pictures. Anna-Lena Friedsam was 6:1, 4:0 ahead against Klara Koukalova. There was absolutely no chance for a comeback for the Czech player. She was completely outplayed.

Unfortunately Anna-Lena felt down (to be honest I didn't see it). She was screaming like hell. I was sure that this is something serious. Betfair has the rule that the bet will stand, when at least one set is completed. I was surprised how much money was still available to lay Friedsam for odds far under 2.00. In the beginning even for 1.10 and below... So I layed her for quite big money (at least in comparison for what I am trading right now). In the end I made almost 50 Euro profit with not much risk. It was obvious that she hurted herself really serious and I could hedge my profit without any problems. Friedsam had to retire (I hope is not too serious) and all the money on her was lost. I could even go for a bigger profit (without a hedge), but in the end trading is not gambling.

What is the learning of this story? Never back 1.01 (an injury is always possible) and never trade without live pictures. On the other hand you can make money with these kind of things. If I would be quicker (I lost the concentration on this match at 6:1, 4:0), I could fill my boots even more.

This profit gives me some room for a possible downfall. I will not count them to the profit&loss that I show on the right side. It's a different approach, whichs works perhaps one or two times in a year.

New setup is done!

Sooner than expected I returned to the ladders. The main reason is the time. In two weeks I will start my new job, so my schedule will be pretty busy. Like Big Pairs, indeed a very nice blog (Big Pairs), I will be forced to share my time between work, trading and other hobbies. Right now I have not much other things to do. Of course I could sit at the lake, but without any effort you will never be a successful trader. Nevertheless I don't have the plan to work as a full time trader like Big Pairs wants to do. For me trading will remain a hobby. Hopefully a lucrative one, but as a single source of income I don't see it anymore. There are too much disadvantages, which I discussed some weeks ago.

I made some major adjustements at my trading approach. The biggest changes are the following ones:

• Smaller Stakes: Once again i set the clock to 0 (I really hope that's the last time)! Yesterday I started with a bank of 1'000 Euro. The common trading rule says that you should not risk more than 1-2% of your bank per trade. In my case that would be 10-20 Euro. The past showed that is too much. A bad run of trades give you a bad feeling, and you lose the trust in the strategies. To reach a sample size which is big enough to judge a strategy (something like 1'000 trades), I decided to trade with only 1-2 Euro risk. If the system works, I can scale up without any problems by factor 100. So it's quite easy to see, what could be possible (just erase the comma... cents could be Euros :-)).
  
• Shorter timeframe: In the past I stayed often too long in a trade. Sometimes I was 30-50 ticks in profit, but in the end I lost. I decided to trade shorter periods, but with more positions.
  
• Lower Risk-/reward-ratio: I was too focused on a positive risk-/reward-ratio. There are different trading styles. Some traders risk 10 ticks to make 20. Other people risk 100 ticks with the target of winning one. In the end it has to suit your preferences. I prefer a higher strike rate, so my single position can't go for the jackpot.  

For the moment I will trade with these very low stakes. If is possible to double my bank with this strategy (from 1'000 to 2'000 Euros) I will rise the stakes by factor 10. Ten time bigger stakes would be an appropiate money management for my current bank (risk 10-20 Euros with a bank of 1'000 to 2'000 Euros). At the moment testing is more important than the P+L.

Yesterday I started with the above mentioned parameters. With two successful trades I made a profit of 1.14 Euros. It doesn't sound very impressive, but with factor 100 we would cooking... Good things start small. Let's see what's possible. Right now I feel again a lot more confident.

Taking a small break

The title says it. Since my return from the holidays, I totally lost the focus and trust. Every trade is wrong, I think I am on a 0:10 run or something like this. I can back the favourite, when he/she is trailing or go with the underdog, everytime I am on the wrong side. Perhaps it's a lack of game reading, perhaps it's bad luck. I don't know. I am out of words. Unfortunately I don't see any edge with my tennis strategies. It's just pure gambling with good and bad runs. No wonder, the tennis market is really mature and efficient. I still think that's possible to make money with tennis trading, but you have to act smart and find your own way.

Right now I am trading with a midterm approach. In average I stay two or three games in a trade. I start to feel that this is too long. Today I was 30 ticks in plus, but in the end I lost the trade. That is quite stupid in my opinion. It shows that a more active trading makes sense. A commentator mentioned that he makes around 80-90 trades during an NFL match.

I have to look for a different approach. I have an idea, but I have to test it with small stakes. Even the mentioned 20 Euro are too much at the current stage. I will take a break for some days to refocus. I will keep you informed. Have a nice weekend!

Post holiday depression...

Welcome in the reality! My trading before the holidays was quite decent, Wimbledon and the tournaments before I was always in profit. Today I had a terrible return to the ladders. Nothing worked, I made five trades and all ended with a loss! Thanks to the money management I "only" lost around 6% of the bank.

Well it's normal that traders have good and bad runs, but today I asked myself (like in old times), where is the edge? We had the discussion with Cassini. He has the opinion that there is (almost) no chance for a hobby punter with an average internet home access (no courtsiding) and normal information to make money. Okay, it's just one appreciated opionon of many, but my sceptism is coming back. Is it really possible to make money from home (against the big fishes)?

I am happy not having the pressure to earn my money with trading. It's really frustrating to have these kind of days. If you need the money for covering the daily expenses, it can be really stressful. 

I don't know the exact reasons for today's failure. Was it bad variance? Was ist overtrading? Was it bad knowledge? Was it mix of all? It's difficult to say with just five trades. You need a big sample to judge strategies and your trading level.

Well, I recognized that my stakes are still too high for not proved strategies and knowledge. Obviously you can't earn big moeny with low stakes (and the opportunity costs are even higher), but for testing the strategies is better. I didn't lose a fortune, but it's still too much to be not angry and disappointed. 

I talked about scaling up the stakes if the strategies work. Thanks to the great liquidity at tennis markets this would not be a problem. I decided to lower my stakes by factor 5 (max risk per trade 20 Euro). For learning and gaining trust, it's unfortunately the only way. Sultan talked more than once about this topic at his road to become a successful trader. First you have to trade consistent, second you can rise the stakes. 

Let's see if I can make profit one day. If not, it's not the end of the world. In 2 1/2 weeks I will start my new job, where I earn good money with less stress. I see trading as a hobby, it's a a great competition against other people. The minium target has to be not losing money!

No more pre game trading

The pre game trading was one of my strategies. Unfortunately it didn't work well. Actually I think it could be a nice niche market, but you can't do it just beside the inplay trading. Normally it's a lot of psychology in the offplay markets. Especially not experienced bettors have the tendency to back the big favourite (against every logic of value). After a loss with Stan Wawrinka, which I hoped to solve inplay (unfortunately it didn't work, I would categorize this trade as a small lack of discipline), I decided to stop with these kind of trades. I don't see a real edge, at least not without a big focus on the offplay market.

I didn't count this loss to my profit&loss statement (exactly -100 Euro), because I will not do this approach anymore. It's looking like an excuse, that's true. Probably I would count the profit if I could turn the trade in a winner. I am honest about this issue. You see, never believe a profit&loss blog ;-). I would not consider my blog as one of these categories. My figures (on the right side) are just shown to keep my focus and my discipline as high as possible. If there are a difference to real Betfair statement I will mention it like today. I don't like to lie about my numbers, there is no benefit for me to do that.

If you don't count the mentioned trade, I had a successful day. Nevertheless it was not that good like it should be. There were a lot of missed opportunities, once again... Unfortunately my focus drifted away after the lost trade with Stan Wawrinka. It never helps to start bad in a day. A professional trader has the mental strength to forget a loss in one second. He knows that his strategy works and there is a long term edge on his side. I am still not sure about it. The results (without the mentioned mistake) of Wimbledon are looking promising. I made over 150 Euro, what I also did in the weeks before. I know that the sample size is too small, nevertheless I am happy about the progress. Step after step I find my own way to trade. Below you find my profit&loss statement for Wimbledon. When you substract the mentioned trade of Wawrinka and the outright bet on Rafael Nadal (it was more fun than real believe) is exactly the value shown on the right side.

In summary Wimbledon was not my breakthrough, but a step in the right direction. I still make too much mistakes and miss opportunities which I shouldn't. Beside I take too often bad value.  

Tomorrow I will travel to New York. I just recognized that the 4th July is a special day in the USA. Let's see if there are some activities around the Times Square, where my hotel is. I think it's the right moment to take a break from the ladders. The last days were intense and like wrote yesterday, you have to consider the opportunity costs, which are quite high. After the holidays I will trade some smaller tournaments. The nice thing about tennis trading, there is always a tomorrow with new opportunities...

Opportunity costs

Cassini mentioned it some days ago, as a (part time) trader you have to consider your opportunity costs (Opportunity Costs). The time you spend in front of the computer is worth something. Especially at a sunny day like today, there are better things to do as staring to a TV and computer screen. Beside is almost impossible to keep the focus while trading, when it's over 30 degrees Celsius in the room. Unfortunately the most flats in Europe have no air conditioner...

For me the used time is an investment in the future. I take a one month break before I start a new job, so it's a rare opportunity to make an intense testing of my strategies and trading skills. Beside I will make next week "real holidays", when I travel to New York and Bahamas. So I will not lose all my time in front of screens... one disadvantage of tennis matches are the playing hours (at least, when the ATP and WTA are in Europe and and the matches are played during the day). I really look forward to the automn, when they play overseas, and I can trade in the evenings. It's better for the time management, and beside it's not so hot anymore in September.

Despite the heat I spent like seven hours at the ladders. I made just three trades. One was a loser, one was scratched and one was a winner. The profit for the day was 40 Euro. So I had an hourly salary of six Euro. I would call it a decent wage for Africa... :-)  Without joking, it shows the mentioned topic about opportunity costs. I don't like to sound too negative, in the end is a hobby and it's not lost time for me. Especially when I can scale up the profits one day. I am quite sure, that factor 10 would be possible without any problems (at least at Grand Slam tournaments). 70 Euro an hour would be quite okay and equal to a good paid job in Switzerland.

Tomorrow will already be my last trading day of Wimbledon. Like I mentioned above, I will travel for one week to oversea. Of course I am happy about it, on the other hand I never followed a big tournament that intensive like Wimbledon 2015. So it would be also nice to finish what I started...

The right timing is essential...

If you count the profit of the match between Keys and Vögele (which started yesterday) to today's profit&loss statement I had a green day. If not, I had a red one.

Today I was always a step behind the market. I hesitated too long and missed some opportunities (especially the comeback of Baghdatis against Millman). The day passed by, and I became impatient. When you lose your patience, the mistakes are just a question of time. Unfortunately I traded a poor value with a too early lay against Mattek-Sands. I don't tell, that you couldn't lay her, but my timing was poor, and I executed a wrong strategy.

I was thinking again about my favourite topic, the key performance indicators of trading. :-) I am not so sure if is possible to reach a 1.00-ratio of average profit in comparison to average loss with my strategy. Perhaps when one day a really huge (four digits) profit will come, but when you calculate the median it's probably impossible. I am more the "in and out trader" than the one which hold his position until the end. Like somebody mentioned in the comments, you have to consider that you also lose a lot of trades if you let them run until the end (for example today with Sara Errani). Well, in the end this ratio doesn't matter. The only thing which is important, is the net profit (in comparison to the risk --> ROI or yield).

I made a small adjustment at the exit of a trade (redding strategy). In combination with my greening, the "Sultan strategy" (take out half of the stake, when is 0:30 or breakball against your player) it doesn't make sense. For example:

You lay 1.25 with 200 Euro (risk 50 Euro)
You back 1.10 with 100 Euro (-10 Euro risk)

Perhaps this approach worked some years ago, but now it's too late to halve your stake at this moment. After 0:30 (and a break and set down) the big price movement already happened. Even with taking out half of the stake, you lose 80% of the initial stake. On the other hand, you lose 50% of the stake for a possible comeback...

I give away a bit of the profit with breakpoints for my player. Most traders are waiting for a converted break. I prefer to play more save. Obviously this difference has an influence on the average profit against average loss-ratio. If you wait for a rebreak, your strike rate will be lower, on the other hand your average profit will be higher... I think is a personal preference, how you manage the profits and losses. More crucial are the right timing at the entry!

Like I wrote some days ago, serveral ways go to Rome. Let's see if my strategy with a higher strike rate and a worse average profit/loss-ratio can work.

Decent start at Wimbledon

One day after the tennis players, I also started to my Wimbledon adventure. I would call it a decent beginning. How you can see at the right side, I ended the day with a 4:2-record and a profit of 36.70 Euro.

I traded mainly WTA matches. The first of the reason is the duration. "Best of five"-matches take too much time. Second I don't have much experience with the charts. The volatility is different than the one of "Best of three"-matches. Last, but not least, the women's matches bring normally more momentum changes (which are the base of my trading style), because of the weaker serve.

The first week of a Grand Slam tournament is always very busy. It's difficult to keep the overview. I am more focused on the scoreboard than on the action on the court. The opportunities are often coming at courts, which you don't follow at TV...

The match between Madison Keys and Stefanie Vögele was suspended because of darkness. There I have a sure profit of over 80 Euro. Together with the 36.70 Euro I mentioned above, I can be quite happy about my first trading day at Wimbledon.

Of course not everything was perfect. I missed some good opportunities und took on the other hand at least one gamble. I had to think about a quote of Dr. Alexander Elder:

"Amateurs look for challenges, professionals look for easy trades. Losers get high from the action, the pros look for the best odds".  

When I layed Bacsinszky (against Goerges) I didn't follow this quote. Definitely it was not an easy trade, because I went against the big favourite and the momentum. The other lost trade was okay. I was surprised, how easy I could accept that my idea was wrong (I expected a stronger Paszek). I closed the position and lost only six Euro instead 30-40 Euro (what would probably happen in the past).

Tomorrow is again a day with a lot of action. Hopefully I can take over the positive energy. Before going to sleep I will make my preparation for another busy day on the ladders...