Match selection

Last days brought plenty of actions on the tennis courts. Unfortunately there was no real trading flow, because in all tournaments were a lot of of rain interruptions. The weather in Europe sucks lately...

I made some minor changes in the strategy. Perhaps they went in the wrong direction. I recognized that the losses grew more than the profits. So I had to go back to the initial version.

More concerns I have about the match selection. It seems more and more that this is much more important than any strategy adjustment. At Wednesday I recognized that I lost the most money with matches of the challenger tour. Probably these matches are more unpredictable to trade than bigger tournaments. The best players of the world play "every day" on their normal levels. Lower ranked players have more good and bad days... so it´s difficult to say how they will play. 

On the other hand it´s (sometimes) really weird, how balanced matches with big favourites can be. Yesterday there were a lot of duels with one sided odds, but big volatility at the markets:

• Sinner (1.13) vs. Rinderknech 7:6, 2:6, 5:7
• Ruud (1.18) vs. Koepfer 2:6, 6:1, 6:2
• Martic (1.35) vs. Wang 6:7, 6:3, 5:7

On the other side there were plenty of balanced odds with one-sided outcomes. What I like to tell... it´s (almost) impossible to find an algorithm for selecting the right matches. In the end, a good strategy only can support the trading. Definitely there is no holy grail, the main key is the match selection! So trading is still a kind of gambling... at least I didn´t find the solution yet to make steady profits.