Saturday, 29 August 2015

Variance is part of the trading

Lately I was more focused on the stock exchange than on Betfair. That was one of the reasons, why I didn't trade much. Beside there was not that much action during the evening hours. The whole week I just made six trades. Nevertheless it demonstrated, how the future could and should be.

First of all it showed that the variance is high. After five trades I was in the red zone, one good one helped me to reach an all time high.

Second the biggest profit is higher than the biggest loss. This is important. You have to cut your losses and let the greens run. This principle is implemented in my trading strategy. The average profit is lower than the average loss. This is not alarming, because it has to do with partly won trades. I have two targets after I opened a position. The first level is the breakeven value, the second one gives me in every case (it doesn't matter which player will win the match) a good profit with a risk-/reward ratio above 1.00. So, when only the first target is reached, normally results a small profit (and sometimes a small loss, when my forecasting was too progressive what doesn't happen that often). This fact deforms a bit the comparison between average profit and average loss. This is also the reason, why I can't calculate the yield anymore. Because of stop loss levels, my liability is higher than the real risk. So it would be very complicated and boring to calculate this figure. Beside it results an over analyzing of my trades, which were a handicap in the past. In my opinion the chart and figures shown above are enough to control my trading activities.

Like I wrote in my last posts, I can handle now my emotional side. This helps to accept a bad run like I had after a promising start. Of course I just made six trades and you can't over-interpret that, but a promising tendency is here. I am happy with my new approach, and I start to make the right game selection. The main reason is an improved patience. Before I made a trade, even when the scenario was not the best. Now I am more selective, this is also a reason why I just made six trades.

Next week starts the US Open. I will focus more on the WTA tournament. First the volatility is higher than at ATP matches, because the serve is not that important. Second I don't have much experience with five set matches. In general I am happy that the last preparation tournaments are over soon. At the Salem Open (ATP) and in New Haven (WTA) you never knew if a high ranked player is enough motivated to give 100%. I saw some players tanking, for example Karolina Pliskova. It's quite annoying, when you lose money because a player prefers to have a break before an important tournament than proceed...

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