Monday, 3 May 2021

Is there an edge?

Since my last post over a year passed away. It was February 2020 and the corona pandemic just started (in Europe). In the beginning a lot of tennis tournaments were cancelled and the trading opportunities were low. So I lost a bit the interest to trade.

Lately the action on the tennis courts rised again. So I gained the desire to restart with trading. 

Right now I am analyzing if a progressive staking plan can support a betting strategy. I watched a lot of videos about Fibonacci, Martingale, Labouchere, Oscar Grind and other negative progressive systems.

In my opinion a progressive staking system will never change a losing strategy in a winning one. There has to be a real edge. If you find one, you can improve your results with an appropriate (progressive) staking plan.

At the moment I am testing an automated lay system with flat stakes. If I see a real edge I will think about a combination with a slight progressive system like LP28.

The first results are encouraging, but obviously that data volume is too small after a week to celebrate. I had three winning days (one of them big with a profit of ten units), a day with zero profit and a day with a loss of around two units. Before I traded a similar system and I never lost big. The account balance didn´t change much and was more or less stable. Unfortunately there was no growth neither. The next weeks and months will show if I made the right adjustments to have a strategy with an edge or it´s still only one which is a zero sum game. 

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